Potential Impacts of Future Climate Changes on Crop Productivity of Cereals and Legumes in Tamil Nadu, India: A Mid-Century Time Slice Approach

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
V. Geethalakshmi, R. Gowtham, Radhakrishnan Gopinath, Shanmugavel Priyanka, Marimuthu Rajavel, K. Senthilraja, M. Dhasarathan, R. Rengalakshmi, K. Bhuvaneswari
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Abstract

Climate change is a terrible global concern and one of the greatest future threats to societal development as a whole. The accelerating pace of climate change is becoming a major challenge for agricultural production and food security everywhere. The present study uses the midcentury climate derived from the ensemble of 29 general circulation models (GCMs) on a spatial grid to quantify the anticipated climate change impacts on rice, maize, black gram, and red gram productivity over Tamil Nadu state in India under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future climate projections show an unequivocal increase of annual maximum temperature varying from 0.9 to 2.2°C for RCP 4.5 and 1.4 to 2.7°C in RCP 8.5 scenario by midcentury, centered around 2055 compared to baseline (1981–2020). The projected rise in minimum temperature ranges from 1.0 to 2.2°C with RCP 4.5 and 1.8 to 2.7°C under RCP 8.5 scenario. Among the monsoons, the southwest monsoon (SWM) is expected to be warmer than the northeast monsoon (NEM). Annual rainfall is predicted to increase up to 20% under RCP 4.5 scenario in two-third of the area over Tamil Nadu. Similarly, RCP 8.5 scenario indicates the possibility of an increase in rainfall in the midcentury with higher magnitude than RCP 4.5. Both SWM and NEM seasons are expected to receive higher rainfall during midcentury under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 than the baseline. In the midcentury, climate change is likely to pose a negative impact on the productivity of rice, maize, black gram, and red gram with both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in most places of Tamil Nadu. The magnitude of the decline in yield of all four crops would be more with RCP 8.5 over RCP 4.5 scenario in Tamil Nadu. Future climate projections made through multi-climate model ensemble could increase the plausibility of future climate change impact assessment on crop productivity. The adverse effects of climate change on cereal and legume crop productivity entail the potential adaptation options to ensure food security.
未来气候变化对印度泰米尔纳德邦谷物和豆类作物生产力的潜在影响:世纪中期时间片方法
气候变化是一个可怕的全球问题,也是未来对整个社会发展的最大威胁之一。气候变化的加速正在成为世界各地农业生产和粮食安全面临的重大挑战。本研究使用从空间网格上的29个总环流模型(GCM)集合中得出的世纪中期气候,量化了在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,气候变化对印度泰米尔纳德邦水稻、玉米、黑克和红克生产力的预期影响。未来气候预测显示,到本世纪中叶,RCP 4.5的年最高温度将明显上升,从0.9°C上升到2.2°C,RCP 8.5的年最高气温将上升到1.4°C,与基线(1981–2020)相比,以2055年左右为中心。RCP 4.5的最低温度预计上升范围为1.0至2.2°C,RCP 8.5的最低温度预期上升范围为1.8至2.7°C。在季风中,西南季风(SWM)预计将比东北季风(NEM)温暖。据预测,在RCP 4.5情景下,泰米尔纳德邦三分之二地区的年降雨量将增加20%。同样,RCP 8.5情景表明,本世纪中叶降雨量增加的可能性高于RCP 4.5。在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5的情况下,雨水管理季节和NEM季节预计在本世纪中叶的降雨量都将高于基线。在本世纪中叶,气候变化可能会对泰米尔纳德邦大部分地区的水稻、玉米、黑克和红克的生产力产生负面影响,RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5都是如此。在泰米尔纳德邦,RCP 8.5比RCP 4.5的情况下,所有四种作物的产量下降幅度都会更大。通过多气候模型集合进行的未来气候预测可以提高未来气候变化对作物生产力影响评估的合理性。气候变化对谷物和豆类作物生产力的不利影响,带来了确保粮食安全的潜在适应选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Advances in Meteorology
Advances in Meteorology 地学天文-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
3.40%
发文量
80
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.
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