Between control and independence: computational modelling within EC’s trade sustainability impact assessments

IF 1.8 4区社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI:10.1080/14615517.2022.2112811

Titus Udrea, Anja Bauer

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

ABSTRACT Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIA) are a central instrument for evidence-based policy-making in EU trade policy. Computational modelling is the main analytical tool to assess the potential economic impacts of trade agreements. While modelling has long been undertaken by external consultancies, for recent SIAs DG Trade conducts the trade modelling itself. Against the background of this shift from external to in-house modelling, the article addresses the (perceived) roles and authority of modelling in SIAs. Based on the notion of models as boundary objects and two recent SIAs, i.e. TTIP and EU-Australia, we sketch the socio-technical arrangements of models in SIAs. We then discuss the different understandings of the role of modelling by policy-makers, experts, and stakeholders. The in-house shift exposes disagreements on the character and function of models. We further reflect on the potential implications of the in-house shift for the authority of models in SIAs. Our study suggests that there are advantages to in-house modelling, such as control, flexibility, and consistency. However, these might come at the expense of the perceived independence of policy appraisals.

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在控制和独立之间：欧共体贸易可持续性影响评估中的计算模型

摘要可持续性影响评估（SIA）是欧盟贸易政策循证决策的核心工具。计算模型是评估贸易协定潜在经济影响的主要分析工具。虽然建模长期以来一直由外部咨询公司进行，但最近SIAs的DG Trade自行进行贸易建模。在这种从外部建模向内部建模转变的背景下，本文论述了建模在SIA中的（感知的）作用和权威。基于模型作为边界对象的概念和最近的两个SIA，即TTIP和EU Australia，我们描绘了SIA中模型的社会技术安排。然后，我们讨论了决策者、专家和利益相关者对建模作用的不同理解。内部的转变暴露了在模型的特性和功能上的分歧。我们进一步思考了内部转变对SIA模型权威的潜在影响。我们的研究表明，内部建模具有控制、灵活性和一致性等优势。然而，这些可能是以牺牲政策评估的独立性为代价的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

22.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： This is the international, peer-reviewed journal of the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA). It covers environmental, social, health and other impact assessments, cost-benefit analysis, technology assessment, and other approaches to anticipating and managing impacts. It has readers in universities, government and public agencies, consultancies, NGOs and elsewhere in over 100 countries. It has editorials, main articles, book reviews, and a professional practice section.