Impacts of climate change and its mitigation in the Barents region

Abstract

Abstract The global temperature has increased over 1 degree since the pre-industrial period. Within the Barents Region, the increase has been ca. 2 degrees, and warming is expected to continue over the next century. Based on energy system analysis with the TIMES-VTT model on the one hand, and a literature review on the other, this study identifies how different economic sectors in the Barents Region are affected by changes in climate, and by the climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in the region. According to the results, the Barents region is likely to be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change despite high spatial variation in the impacts across the Barents region. Changing climate will have severe impacts especially on the more vulnerable sectors, societies, and local environments that have less possibility for adaptation. Political action is needed on national, regional, and municipal levels, but these levels should work together and complement each other. As adaptation is unavoidably required, it is important to highlight and suggest priority areas to national adaptation plans from the Barents region’s perspective. Moreover, collection and utilization of local knowledge in adaptation is crucial.