A generalized framework for risk-based extreme load analysis in offshore system design

IF 1.3 4区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-Transactions of the Asme Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI:10.1115/1.4055553

Mohammad Arif, Faisal Khan, Salim Ahmed, S. Imtiaz

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The primary aim of this research is to consider the correlation among environmental factors in calculating 100 and 1000 years of extreme load design criteria. This is done by considering load as energy transferred from external environment to the offshore system. Also, incorporating spatial and temporal dependence of environmental variables in the context of offshore design. A bivariate extreme value distribution and a conditional joint return level function are developed using the Gumbel- Hougaard copula. The offshore design risk criteria are developed for the finer grid locations (0.10 × 0.10 latitude/longitude grid) considering joint extreme wind and wave energy. The developed approach is tested using data for the Flemish Pass basin off the east coast of Canada. Along with the primary aim, the impact of climate change is investigated (time and space variability) by implementing the proposed methodology in two cases: the periods from 1959 to 1988 and 1989 to 2018. This study observed that climate change has caused 30% less correlation between wind speed and wave height in recent years [1989-2018] compared to the period of 1959 to 1988. The proposed extreme design wind speed is 39.7 m/s, significant wave height is 16.4 m; their joint exceeding probability is 5.80E-05 over an annual basis for a scenario of 100-year.

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海上系统设计中基于风险的极限负荷分析的广义框架

本研究的主要目的是在计算100年和1000年极端荷载设计标准时考虑环境因素之间的相关性。这是通过将负载视为从外部环境传递到海上系统的能量来实现的。此外，在海上设计的背景下，结合环境变量的空间和时间依赖性。利用Gumbel-Hougaard copula建立了二元极值分布和条件联合收益水平函数。考虑到联合极端风能和波浪能，为更精细的网格位置（0.10×0.10纬度/经度网格）制定了海上设计风险标准。利用加拿大东海岸弗拉芒山口盆地的数据对所开发的方法进行了测试。除了主要目标外，还通过在两种情况下实施所提出的方法来调查气候变化的影响（时间和空间可变性）：1959年至1988年和1989年至2018年。这项研究观察到，与1959年至1988年相比，气候变化导致近年来[1989-2018]风速和波高之间的相关性降低了30%。拟定的极端设计风速为39.7m/s，有效波高为16.4m；在100年的情况下，它们的联合超额概率为5.80E-05。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-Transactions of the Asme 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering is an international resource for original peer-reviewed research that advances the state of knowledge on all aspects of analysis, design, and technology development in ocean, offshore, arctic, and related fields. Its main goals are to provide a forum for timely and in-depth exchanges of scientific and technical information among researchers and engineers. It emphasizes fundamental research and development studies as well as review articles that offer either retrospective perspectives on well-established topics or exposures to innovative or novel developments. Case histories are not encouraged. The journal also documents significant developments in related fields and major accomplishments of renowned scientists by programming themed issues to record such events. Scope: Offshore Mechanics, Drilling Technology, Fixed and Floating Production Systems; Ocean Engineering, Hydrodynamics, and Ship Motions; Ocean Climate Statistics, Storms, Extremes, and Hurricanes; Structural Mechanics; Safety, Reliability, Risk Assessment, and Uncertainty Quantification; Riser Mechanics, Cable and Mooring Dynamics, Pipeline and Subsea Technology; Materials Engineering, Fatigue, Fracture, Welding Technology, Non-destructive Testing, Inspection Technologies, Corrosion Protection and Control; Fluid-structure Interaction, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Flow and Vortex-Induced Vibrations; Marine and Offshore Geotechnics, Soil Mechanics, Soil-pipeline Interaction; Ocean Renewable Energy; Ocean Space Utilization and Aquaculture Engineering; Petroleum Technology; Polar and Arctic Science and Technology, Ice Mechanics, Arctic Drilling and Exploration, Arctic Structures, Ice-structure and Ship Interaction, Permafrost Engineering, Arctic and Thermal Design.