Assessment and simulation of water transfer for the megacity Istanbul

IF 1.1 4区地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Physical Geography Pub Date : 2021-04-02 DOI:10.1080/02723646.2021.1904698

S. Burak, A. Bilge, Duygu Ülker

{"title":"Assessment and simulation of water transfer for the megacity Istanbul","authors":"S. Burak, A. Bilge, Duygu Ülker","doi":"10.1080/02723646.2021.1904698","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The population of Istanbul increased from three to fifteen million from 1970 to 2018. The city, which has no perennial fresh water resources within its metropolitan boundaries, has long imported water from other basins. In this study, the performance of a reservoir system fed by surface runoff and inter-basin water transfer is investigated and applied. Simulations are run for water demand estimates and with Gamma-distributed realizations of monthly precipitation, based on 105-year temperature and precipitation data. The research shows that after 2060, existing and transferred water alone will not be sufficient to meet demand and it is expected that the megacity Istanbul will be on a path towards water crisis after this date, if not before. It is concluded that it is vital to adopt a more diversified water supply and demand management portfolio with extensive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) measures for “Water Sensitive Cities”. Strategies for reliable system operation that take foreseeable environmental problems into account are proposed.","PeriodicalId":54618,"journal":{"name":"Physical Geography","volume":"43 1","pages":"784 - 808"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02723646.2021.1904698","citationCount":"6","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Physical Geography","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2021.1904698","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Abstract

ABSTRACT The population of Istanbul increased from three to fifteen million from 1970 to 2018. The city, which has no perennial fresh water resources within its metropolitan boundaries, has long imported water from other basins. In this study, the performance of a reservoir system fed by surface runoff and inter-basin water transfer is investigated and applied. Simulations are run for water demand estimates and with Gamma-distributed realizations of monthly precipitation, based on 105-year temperature and precipitation data. The research shows that after 2060, existing and transferred water alone will not be sufficient to meet demand and it is expected that the megacity Istanbul will be on a path towards water crisis after this date, if not before. It is concluded that it is vital to adopt a more diversified water supply and demand management portfolio with extensive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) measures for “Water Sensitive Cities”. Strategies for reliable system operation that take foreseeable environmental problems into account are proposed.

查看原文本刊更多论文

特大城市伊斯坦布尔的调水评估与模拟

从1970年到2018年，伊斯坦布尔的人口从300万增加到1500万。这座城市在其都市边界内没有常年淡水资源，长期以来一直从其他盆地进口水。本文研究了地表径流和流域间调水对水库系统的影响。基于105年的温度和降水数据，进行了用水需求估算和月度降水的伽玛分布实现模拟。研究表明，在2060年之后，仅靠现有的和转移的水将不足以满足需求，预计特大城市伊斯坦布尔将在此日期之后走上水危机的道路，如果不是在此之前。结论是，对于“水敏感型城市”而言，采用更加多样化的供水和需求管理组合以及广泛的水资源综合管理措施至关重要。提出了考虑可预见环境问题的系统可靠运行策略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Physical Geography 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Physical Geography disseminates significant research in the environmental sciences, including research that integrates environmental processes and human activities. It publishes original papers devoted to research in climatology, geomorphology, hydrology, biogeography, soil science, human-environment interactions, and research methods in physical geography, and welcomes original contributions on topics at the intersection of two or more of these categories.