Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network Techniques for Forecasting Non-Stationary Agricultural Output Time Series

Abstract

With the vast popularity of the deep learning models in the engineering and mathematical fields, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have recently attracted significant research applications in agriculture, economics, informatics and finance. In this paper, we use a deep learning method to capture and predict the unknown complex nonlinear characteristics of agricultural output based on autoregressive artificial neural network, using Nigeria as a case study. Using the proposed model, shocks in agricultural output is analyzed and modeled using data obtained for a period of forty years (1980-2019), and compared with analyses obtained from the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). This result is significant because it justifies the superiority of the hybrid ANN model over the traditional Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting non-stationary time series. The empirical results show that the proposed autoregressive ANN model achieves an improved forecasting accuracy over the traditional Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. It is further proposed that various types of artificial neural networks would be useful in forecasting and solving relevant tasks and problems widely defined in global agricultural production.