A Quantile Functions-Based Investigation on the Characteristics of Southern African Solar Irradiation Data

Abstract

Exploration of solar irradiance can greatly assist in understanding how renewable energy can be better harnessed. It helps in establishing the solar irradiance climate in a particular region for effective and efficient harvesting of solar energy. Understanding the climate provides planners, designers and investors in the solar power generation sector with critical information. However, a detailed exploration of these climatic characteristics has not yet been studied for the Southern African data. Very little exploration is being done through the use of measures of centrality only. These descriptive statistics may be misleading. As a result, we overcome limitations in the currently used deterministic models through the application of distributional modelling through quantile functions. Deterministic and stochastic elements in the data were combined and analysed simultaneously when fitting quantile distributional function models. The fitted models were then used to find population means as explorative parameters that consist of both deterministic and stochastic properties of the data. The application of QFs has been shown to be a practical tool and gives more information than approaches that focus separately on either measures of central tendency or empirical distributions. Seasonal effects were detected in the data from the whole region and can be attributed to the cyclical behaviour exhibited. Daily maximum solar irradiation is taking place within two hours of midday and monthly accumulates in summer months. Windhoek is receiving the best daily total mean, while the maximum monthly accumulated total mean is taking place in Durban. Developing separate solar irradiation models for summer and winter is highly recommended. Though robust and rigorous, quantile distributional function modelling enables exploration and understanding of all components of the behaviour of the data being studied. Therefore, a starting base for understanding Southern Africa’s solar climate was developed in this study.