{"title":"How Transitory Is Inflation?","authors":"R. Arnott, O. Shakernia","doi":"10.3905/jpm.2023.1.468","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Across 14 developed-economy countries over the past half-century, the authors analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of inflation typically lingers. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. Transitory inflation is certainly possible, but it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Messaging and policy response from the US Federal Reserve Bank should reflect the relatively high empirical risk that inflation may persist.","PeriodicalId":53670,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Portfolio Management","volume":"49 1","pages":"21 - 33"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Portfolio Management","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2023.1.468","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Across 14 developed-economy countries over the past half-century, the authors analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of inflation typically lingers. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. Transitory inflation is certainly possible, but it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Messaging and policy response from the US Federal Reserve Bank should reflect the relatively high empirical risk that inflation may persist.
期刊介绍:
Founded by Peter Bernstein in 1974, The Journal of Portfolio Management (JPM) is the definitive source of thought-provoking analysis and practical techniques in institutional investing. It offers cutting-edge research on asset allocation, performance measurement, market trends, risk management, portfolio optimization, and more. Each quarterly issue of JPM features articles by the most renowned researchers and practitioners—including Nobel laureates—whose works define modern portfolio theory.