How Transitory Is Inflation?

IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
R. Arnott, O. Shakernia
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Across 14 developed-economy countries over the past half-century, the authors analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of inflation typically lingers. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. Transitory inflation is certainly possible, but it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Messaging and policy response from the US Federal Reserve Bank should reflect the relatively high empirical risk that inflation may persist.
通货膨胀有多短暂?
在过去的半个世纪里,在14个发达经济体国家中,作者分析了一个国家的通货膨胀率飙升超过各种阈值后的通货膨胀行为,并研究了通货膨胀爆发通常会持续多久。如果以历史为鉴,通货膨胀可能需要比大多数人意识到的更长的时间才能恢复到正常水平。暂时的通货膨胀当然是可能的,但这很难成为一个合理的中心预期。美国联邦储备银行的信息和政策反应应该反映出通胀可能持续的相对较高的经验风险。
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来源期刊
Journal of Portfolio Management
Journal of Portfolio Management Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
28.60%
发文量
113
期刊介绍: Founded by Peter Bernstein in 1974, The Journal of Portfolio Management (JPM) is the definitive source of thought-provoking analysis and practical techniques in institutional investing. It offers cutting-edge research on asset allocation, performance measurement, market trends, risk management, portfolio optimization, and more. Each quarterly issue of JPM features articles by the most renowned researchers and practitioners—including Nobel laureates—whose works define modern portfolio theory.
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