The Effect of Cannabis Legalization on Substance Demand and Tax Revenues

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

National Tax Journal Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI:10.1086/712915

Keaton S. Miller, Boyoung Seo

引用次数: 15

Abstract

Cannabis advocates argue that legalization will increase tax revenues. However, if legal substances are substitutes, cannabis revenues may cannibalize other taxes. We document substitution between legal cannabis products and alcohol and tobacco products using detailed administrative and scanner data from Washington State. We estimate a flexible demand system for legal substances and find legalizing cannabis leads to a 15 percent decrease in alcohol, mainly by liquor and wine, and 5 percent decrease in cigarette demand. Approximately 40 percent of Washington’s 2015 cannabis revenue was cannibalized from preexisting sources. We find that Washington’s current substance taxes, even after accounting for substitution, are on the upward-sloping side of the Laffer curve.

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大麻合法化对物质需求和税收的影响

大麻倡导者认为合法化将增加税收。然而，如果合法物质是替代品，大麻收入可能会蚕食其他税收。我们使用华盛顿州的详细行政和扫描仪数据记录了合法大麻产品与酒精和烟草产品之间的替代。我们估计，对合法物质的灵活需求系统会使大麻合法化，导致酒精（主要是白酒和葡萄酒）减少15%，香烟需求减少5%。华盛顿2015年的大麻收入中，约有40%来自先前存在的来源。我们发现，即使考虑到替代，华盛顿目前的物质税也处于拉弗曲线的向上倾斜一侧。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

National Tax Journal Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the National Tax Journal (NTJ) is to encourage and disseminate high quality original research on governmental tax and expenditure policies. Articles published in the regular March, June and September issues of the journal, as well as articles accepted for publication in special issues of the journal, are subject to professional peer review and include economic, theoretical, and empirical analyses of tax and expenditure issues with an emphasis on policy implications. The NTJ has been published quarterly since 1948 under the auspices of the National Tax Association (NTA). Most issues include an NTJ Forum, which consists of invited papers by leading scholars that examine in depth a single current tax or expenditure policy issue. The December issue is devoted to publishing papers presented at the NTA’s annual Spring Symposium; the articles in the December issue generally are not subject to peer review.