Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman, Md Shajedur Rahaman, Jatish C. Biswas, Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Mohammad Ariful Islam, Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar, Md Saiful Islam, Md Maniruzzaman
{"title":"Climate change and risk scenario in Bangladesh","authors":"Mohammad Chhiddikur Rahman, Md Shajedur Rahaman, Jatish C. Biswas, Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Mohammad Ariful Islam, Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar, Md Saiful Islam, Md Maniruzzaman","doi":"10.1007/s41685-022-00252-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical position. Many extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones, drought, salinity, hailstorms, river, coastal erosion, etc. affect the country almost every year. Although the whole country is affected by extreme weather events to different degrees, it is important to categorize the zones according to the intensity of impacts from climate-induced losses to delineate mitigation and adaptation strategies. To do this in this study, we employed the global climate risk index (CRI) with the available data at district levels collected by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics through a national-level survey to estimate the district-wise CRI of Bangladesh. Moreover, we employed a time series regression model with long-term data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department to estimate the variability of climate parameters (such as temperature, rainfall, humidity). The yearly increment in maximum temperature during 1980–2000 was 0.031 °C and it increased by 0.022 °C per year during 2001–2020. The annual rainfall over the whole period increased by 223 mm. In general, the overall relative humidity increased by 1.16% between the two periods. There were also periodic changes in climate events along with monthly fluctuations in temperatures, rainfall and humidity patterns. Among the 64 districts of Bangladesh, 4 districts were categorized as severe risk (CRI: > 50), 10 as high risk (CRI: 36–50), and 12 as medium risk (CRI: 26–35) based on climate change impacts. The severe climate risk districts are Sunamganj, Bhola, Kurigram and Patuakhali, where there were losses of 520–720 million USD. In general, 41.71% of the people were affected by climate extremes, and 5.55% suffered from hazard-induced sickness and injury. As a consequence of climate change, flooding showed the greatest contribution to household damages and losses in Bangladesh. These findings can help in prioritizing region-specific mitigation and adaptation actions against the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36164,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41685-022-00252-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical position. Many extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones, drought, salinity, hailstorms, river, coastal erosion, etc. affect the country almost every year. Although the whole country is affected by extreme weather events to different degrees, it is important to categorize the zones according to the intensity of impacts from climate-induced losses to delineate mitigation and adaptation strategies. To do this in this study, we employed the global climate risk index (CRI) with the available data at district levels collected by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics through a national-level survey to estimate the district-wise CRI of Bangladesh. Moreover, we employed a time series regression model with long-term data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department to estimate the variability of climate parameters (such as temperature, rainfall, humidity). The yearly increment in maximum temperature during 1980–2000 was 0.031 °C and it increased by 0.022 °C per year during 2001–2020. The annual rainfall over the whole period increased by 223 mm. In general, the overall relative humidity increased by 1.16% between the two periods. There were also periodic changes in climate events along with monthly fluctuations in temperatures, rainfall and humidity patterns. Among the 64 districts of Bangladesh, 4 districts were categorized as severe risk (CRI: > 50), 10 as high risk (CRI: 36–50), and 12 as medium risk (CRI: 26–35) based on climate change impacts. The severe climate risk districts are Sunamganj, Bhola, Kurigram and Patuakhali, where there were losses of 520–720 million USD. In general, 41.71% of the people were affected by climate extremes, and 5.55% suffered from hazard-induced sickness and injury. As a consequence of climate change, flooding showed the greatest contribution to household damages and losses in Bangladesh. These findings can help in prioritizing region-specific mitigation and adaptation actions against the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh.
期刊介绍:
The Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science expands the frontiers of regional science through the diffusion of intrinsically developed and advanced modern, regional science methodologies throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Articles published in the journal foster progress and development of regional science through the promotion of comprehensive and interdisciplinary academic studies in relationship to research in regional science across the globe. The journal’s scope includes articles dedicated to theoretical economics, positive economics including econometrics and statistical analysis and input–output analysis, CGE, Simulation, applied economics including international economics, regional economics, industrial organization, analysis of governance and institutional issues, law and economics, migration and labor markets, spatial economics, land economics, urban economics, agricultural economics, environmental economics, behavioral economics and spatial analysis with GIS/RS data education economics, sociology including urban sociology, rural sociology, environmental sociology and educational sociology, as well as traffic engineering. The journal provides a unique platform for its research community to further develop, analyze, and resolve urgent regional and urban issues in Asia, and to further refine established research around the world in this multidisciplinary field. The journal invites original articles, proposals, and book reviews.The Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science is a new English-language journal that spun out of Chiikigakukenkyuu, which has a 45-year history of publishing the best Japanese research in regional science in the Japanese language and, more recently and more frequently, in English. The development of regional science as an international discipline has necessitated the need for a new publication in English. The Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science is a publishing vehicle for English-language contributions to the field in Japan, across the complete Asia-Pacific arena, and beyond.Content published in this journal is peer reviewed (Double Blind).