Characteristics of seasonal changes of the Baltic Sea extreme sea levels

Abstract

This work analyses the monthly spatial distribution of extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea as well as the relationship of these levels with the NAO and AO indicators. The research was based on hourly sea level data from the 45 tide gauge stations gathered in the years 1960 to 2020. The analysis shows that the duration of extreme sea levels tends to increase moving from along the line joining the open sea and the gulf end. This is associated with the narrowing of the gulf and the geomorphological and bathymetric configuration of the coastal zone. The duration of high and low sea levels in the Baltic Sea decreases from a maximum in January to a minimum in the months of May to August, then it increases again until the end of the year. This cycle corresponds well to the annual occurrence of storm surges, which are affected by the annual changes in atmospheric circulation. The impact of the variations of the circulation on extreme sea levels was confirmed by examining the relation between maximum, minimum and mean levels of the Baltic waters and the zone circulation indices NAO and AO for each month of the year and the seasons in the multiyear period 1960–2020. The results indicate that the strongest correlations exist between sea levels and NAO/AO in the winter months. There is a spatial differentiation of the correlation and its increase from the southwest to the northeast in Baltic Sea.