A Combination of Forward Chaining and Certainty Factor Methods for Early Detection of Fever : Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Malaria and Typhoid

Abstract

Abstract. Purpose: Dengue Hemorrhagic and Malaria fevers are the most common arthropod-borne diseases caused by mosquito bites and they also have similar signs and symptoms. Based on the problems, the researcher makes an expert system that aims to help people early detect fever diseases. This system is expected to help and support the infectious disease prevention and control program by the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia.Methods: This study uses an expert system with a combination of Forward Chaining and Certainty Factor to detect the symptoms of fever. Forward Chaining is a technique that begins with gathering information related to known facts, then combining rules to produce conclusions. The certainty Factor method is used to define a measure of certainty against a fact or rule and to describe the level of expert confidence in dealing with problems. There are 32 symptoms of the disease consisting of dengue fever, malaria and typhoid, it was obtained based on the literature and interviews with internal medicine specialist with 20 case datasets.Result: Based on 20 test data, obtained one data that does not match the test results and the desired target so that the system accuracy obtained is 95%. In addition, the combination of Forward Chaining and Certainty factor has better accuracy when compared to expert systems in previous studies.Novelty: Forward Chaining to find three rules and assigning weights to the Certainty Factor that has been set by the expert makes the combination of the two methods produce better accuracy.