Decomposition of contribution to runoff changes and spatial differences of major tributaries in the middle reaches of the Yellow River based on the Budyko framework

Abstract

Quantitative differentiation of climate and human activities on runoff is important for water resources management and future water resources trend prediction. In recent years, runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River (MRYR) has decreased dramatically. Many studies have analyzed the causes of runoff reduction, but there is still a lack of understanding of the spatial differences in runoff contributions and their causes. Therefore, this study quantitatively distinguishes the contributions of climate and human activities to runoff changes in nine sub-basins of the MRYR based on the Budyko framework and analyses the differences in the contributions of different basins and their causes. The results show that the runoff in the nine sub-basins decreases significantly and the precipitation increases from northwest to southeast. The contribution of human activities to runoff is greater than that of climate change, especially in the Huangfuchuan (HF) River and Kuye (KY) River basins, where the contribution of human activities to runoff exceeds 90%. The greater impact of human activities in HF River and KY River is due to the significantly higher water use growth rate and normalized vegetation index trends than in other areas.