Chengyu Xu, Canyu Yuan, Xianghu Li, Yaling Lin, Hongxiang Fan
{"title":"Projection of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin based on CMIP6","authors":"Chengyu Xu, Canyu Yuan, Xianghu Li, Yaling Lin, Hongxiang Fan","doi":"10.2166/nh.2023.141","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Extreme precipitation is very sensitive to climate change. Global warming will significantly affect the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and further affect the spatio-temporal pattern of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of extreme precipitation and projects its disaster-causing risk under different climate scenarios in the Yangtze River Basin from 2021 to 2100. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin shows an increasing trend in the future. Annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) increases by 33.05–42.56% under five scenarios compared with the historical period. The future change in heavy precipitation (R95p) also shows a significant increase, but heavy rain days (R50) and 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day) decrease. The disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is mainly Levels III and IV, accounting for 57.23–65.99% of the total basin area. The area with Level V is mainly distributed in the Poyang Lake Basin and the lower main stream of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the changes in disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation are mainly manifested in the decrease of areas with low risk (Levels I and II) and the increase of areas with medium risk (Levels III and IV) in different periods.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.141","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Extreme precipitation is very sensitive to climate change. Global warming will significantly affect the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and further affect the spatio-temporal pattern of disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of extreme precipitation and projects its disaster-causing risk under different climate scenarios in the Yangtze River Basin from 2021 to 2100. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin shows an increasing trend in the future. Annual precipitation (PRCPTOT) increases by 33.05–42.56% under five scenarios compared with the historical period. The future change in heavy precipitation (R95p) also shows a significant increase, but heavy rain days (R50) and 5-day maximum precipitation (RX5day) decrease. The disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin is mainly Levels III and IV, accounting for 57.23–65.99% of the total basin area. The area with Level V is mainly distributed in the Poyang Lake Basin and the lower main stream of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the changes in disaster-causing risk of extreme precipitation are mainly manifested in the decrease of areas with low risk (Levels I and II) and the increase of areas with medium risk (Levels III and IV) in different periods.
期刊介绍:
Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.