Predilection or Prediction? Country Selection for the President's Daily Intelligence Brief, 1961–1977

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Foreign Policy Analysis Pub Date : 2021-12-09 DOI:10.1093/fpa/orab036

James H. Lebovic

引用次数: 0

Abstract

A study of the daily briefings of US presidents by the intelligence community offers a useful test of whether governments can surmount intragovernmental influences in the acquisition and processing of information. A finding that the briefs somehow anticipate events would suggest that governments—their leaders and organizations—rise above political incentives and institutional practices to approach the rationality that realist and liberal scholars attribute to states. This study, thus, examines which countries appear in (the now declassified) daily intelligence briefs of the 1961–(January)1977 period, covering the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford years. It not only finds evidence that the selection of countries for the briefs favors countries referenced in prior briefs (per the foreign-policy literature) but also finds significant evidence that the appearance of countries, in the briefs, anticipates their increased activity in the period to follow (per a rational model).

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偏好还是预测?总统每日情报简报的国家选择，1961-1977

情报界对美国总统每日简报的研究为政府能否在信息获取和处理方面克服政府内部的影响提供了一个有用的测试。简报在某种程度上预测了事件，这一发现表明，政府——其领导人和组织——超越了政治激励和制度实践，接近了现实主义和自由主义学者赋予国家的理性。因此，这项研究考察了1961年至1977年（1月）期间，哪些国家出现在（现已解密的）每日情报简报中，涵盖肯尼迪、约翰逊、尼克松和福特时代。它不仅发现了证据，证明为简报选择的国家有利于先前简报中提到的国家（根据外交政策文献），而且还发现了重要证据，表明简报中出现的国家预计其在接下来的一段时间内会增加活动（根据理性模型）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Foreign Policy Analysis INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Reflecting the diverse, comparative and multidisciplinary nature of the field, Foreign Policy Analysis provides an open forum for research publication that enhances the communication of concepts and ideas across theoretical, methodological, geographical and disciplinary boundaries. By emphasizing accessibility of content for scholars of all perspectives and approaches in the editorial and review process, Foreign Policy Analysis serves as a source for efforts at theoretical and methodological integration and deepening the conceptual debates throughout this rich and complex academic research tradition. Foreign policy analysis, as a field of study, is characterized by its actor-specific focus. The underlying, often implicit argument is that the source of international politics and change in international politics is human beings, acting individually or in groups. In the simplest terms, foreign policy analysis is the study of the process, effects, causes or outputs of foreign policy decision-making in either a comparative or case-specific manner.