The Method of Proactive Risk Assessment for Flight Safety Based on the Rate of Dangerous Events

Abstract

: This publication is devoted to the issues of risk assessment in the safety management system of military aviation. The method of proactive assessment of risks to flight safety based on the number of dangerous events, which is based on correlation-regression analysis, provides an opportunity to predict the conditions that contribute to the occurrence of accidents. Studies conducted with this method have confirmed the dependence of the number of aviation accidents and serious incidents on incidents recorded for different groups of reasons, as well as on the intensity of flight activities. The obtained results can provide initial data for quantitative risk assessment in the safety management system of military aviation. The implementation of such an approach is appropriate in safety management systems in the transition phase from active to proactive approaches, until a sufficient information database on hazards is accumulated.