Improving Forecasts of Land Use with regionalized maps in the SLEUTH model

IF 0.4 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Ellen Cristina Wolf Roth, A. Koscianski
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The expansion of cities has significant impacts on economy, ecology, and quality of life, among other sectors. This process affects a large fraction of the world’s population and draws attention of administrators, investors, and scientists. Simulation is an important tool to understand and administer the growth process; however, cities are complex systems, and computer models capture only a fraction of their dynamics. Precision is compromised by simplifications as data averages, and the difficulty to represent human aspects decisive in the evolution of cities. This study tries to mitigate these issues by integrating qualitative information in forecasts computed with the model SLEUTH. Simulations were regionalised using a socioeconomic and historical perspective, which can be explored with other tools. The method was compared to the traditional approach, and the results confirmed a better match between the simulation and the city characteristics.
利用SLEUTH模型中的区域化地图改进土地利用预测
城市的扩张对经济、生态和生活质量等领域产生了重大影响。这一过程影响了世界上很大一部分人口,并引起了管理者、投资者和科学家的注意。模拟是理解和管理生长过程的重要工具;然而,城市是一个复杂的系统,计算机模型只能捕捉到其动态的一小部分。由于数据平均值的简化,精度受到了损害,而在城市的演变中,表现人类方面的困难是决定性的。本研究试图通过在SLEUTH模型计算的预测中整合定性信息来缓解这些问题。利用社会经济和历史的角度对模拟进行了区域化,这可以用其他工具进行探索。将该方法与传统方法进行了比较,结果表明仿真结果与城市特征吻合较好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
8
审稿时长
12 weeks
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