An ensemble data-driven approach for incorporating uncertainty in the forecasting of stormwater sewer surcharge

IF 1.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q3 WATER RESOURCES

Urban Water Journal Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI:10.1080/1573062X.2023.2240309

Felix Schmid, J. Leandro

引用次数: 0

Abstract

ABSTRACT Stormwater surcharge events are unavoidable above a certain rainfall intensity. Thus, for protection and damage mitigation, forecast systems are of outstanding importance. This study develops an ensemble forecast system (EFS) to predict the beginning and end of sewer surcharge events. It applies a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) network to each member of the ensemble, making it suitable for real-time predictions. The fundamental idea is the forecast of water depth time series within manholes based on the given rainfall. The novelty lies in the consideration of uncertainty through the ensemble structure for which the numbers of neurons in the hidden layer, the weights, and biases are considered to be uncertain. The results are evaluated based on observed values captured within the uncertainty band ), and the width of the band ). The varied between 74% and 94% and the between 1.36 and 10.68.

查看原文本刊更多论文

一种综合数据驱动的方法，将不确定性纳入雨污水附加费的预测

摘要：在一定的降雨强度以上，暴雨超载事件是不可避免的。因此，对于保护和减轻损害，预测系统具有突出的重要性。本研究开发了一个综合预测系统（EFS）来预测下水道超载事件的开始和结束。它将具有外生输入的非线性自回归（NARX）网络应用于集成的每个成员，使其适用于实时预测。其基本思想是根据给定的降雨量预测检修孔内的水深时间序列。新颖之处在于通过集成结构考虑了不确定性，其中隐藏层中神经元的数量、权重和偏差被认为是不确定的。基于在不确定度带内捕获的观测值和带的宽度来评估结果。在74%和94%之间变化，在1.36和10.68之间变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Urban Water Journal WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

11.10%

发文量

101

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Urban Water Journal provides a forum for the research and professional communities dealing with water systems in the urban environment, directly contributing to the furtherance of sustainable development. Particular emphasis is placed on the analysis of interrelationships and interactions between the individual water systems, urban water bodies and the wider environment. The Journal encourages the adoption of an integrated approach, and system''s thinking to solve the numerous problems associated with sustainable urban water management. Urban Water Journal focuses on the water-related infrastructure in the city: namely potable water supply, treatment and distribution; wastewater collection, treatment and management, and environmental return; storm drainage and urban flood management. Specific topics of interest include: network design, optimisation, management, operation and rehabilitation; novel treatment processes for water and wastewater, resource recovery, treatment plant design and optimisation as well as treatment plants as part of the integrated urban water system; demand management and water efficiency, water recycling and source control; stormwater management, urban flood risk quantification and management; monitoring, utilisation and management of urban water bodies including groundwater; water-sensitive planning and design (including analysis of interactions of the urban water cycle with city planning and green infrastructure); resilience of the urban water system, long term scenarios to manage uncertainty, system stress testing; data needs, smart metering and sensors, advanced data analytics for knowledge discovery, quantification and management of uncertainty, smart technologies for urban water systems; decision-support and informatic tools;...