Course grades as actionable early warning indicators: predicting high school graduation in an urban school district

IF 0.8 Q3 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH

Preventing School Failure Pub Date : 2022-01-22 DOI:10.1080/1045988X.2022.2028715

David T. Marshall

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Using administrative data from an urban school district, two series of predictive models were tested for their ability to project a student’s high school graduation status. The models included student grades, attendance, behavior, demographic predictors, and school-level variables. Eighth and ninth-grade variables were tested for two graduation cohorts (n = 2773) and multilevel logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. Most early warning indicator (EWI) models include end-of-course grades as predictors. This study operationalizes course failure as having failed a single marking period in the eighth grade or having failed a single semester in the ninth grade. Findings offer practitioners an actionable course grades based EWI, allowing for intervention after a single marking period of failure.

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课程成绩作为可操作的预警指标:预测城市学区高中毕业情况

摘要利用城市学区的行政数据，测试了两系列预测模型对学生高中毕业状况的预测能力。这些模型包括学生成绩、出勤率、行为、人口统计预测因素和学校层面的变量。八年级和九年级的变量对两个毕业队列进行了测试（n = 2773），并进行多水平logistic回归分析对数据进行分析。大多数预警指标（EWI）模型包括课程结束成绩作为预测因素。这项研究将课程失败视为八年级的一个评分期不及格或九年级的一学期不及格。研究结果为从业者提供了一个可操作的基于EWI的课程成绩，允许在一段失败的评分期后进行干预。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Preventing School Failure EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Preventing School Failure provides a forum in which to examine critically emerging and evidence-based practices that are both data driven and practical for children and youth in general and alternative education systems. Authors are afforded the opportunity to discuss and debate critical and sometimes controversial issues that affect the education of children and adolescents in various settings. Preventing School Failure is a peer-reviewed academic journal for administrators, educators, mental health workers, juvenile justice and corrections personnel, day and residential treatment personnel, staff-development specialists, teacher educators, and others. Our goal is to share authoritative and timely information with a wide-ranging audience dedicated to serving children and adolescents in general education, special education, and alternative education programs. We accept for review manuscripts that contain critical and integrated literature reviews, objective program evaluations, evidence-based strategies and procedures, program descriptions, and policy-related content. As appropriate, manuscripts should contain enough detail that readers are able to put useful or innovative strategies or procedures into practice.