A model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus in the Australian environment

Q3 Mathematics
L. Denholm, N. Beeton, L. Forbes, S. Carver
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract Ross River Disease is a mosquito-borne viral condition that affects pockets of the Australian human population, and can be debilitating in some instances. The evidence is that the virus reservoirs in marsupials, such as kangaroos, and this may account for the unpredictable outbreaks of the disease in humans. Accordingly, we present here a new model for the dynamics of Ross River Virus (RRV) in populations of mosquitoes and kangaroos. We calculate steady-state populations for the sub-groups in each species and demonstrate that naturally-occurring oscillations in the populations (limit cycles) do not occur. When seasonal forcing of vector populations and kangaroo birth rates is taken into account, however, the model may predict multi-annual outbreaks and chaos, perhaps explaining the unpredictability of some RRV disease epidemics, particularly across southern Australia. Detailed results in this case are presented.
罗斯河病毒在澳大利亚环境中的动态模型
罗斯河病是一种蚊子传播的病毒疾病,影响澳大利亚的部分人口,在某些情况下可能会使人衰弱。有证据表明,病毒在袋鼠等有袋动物中存在,这可能解释了这种疾病在人类中不可预测的爆发。因此,我们提出了罗斯河病毒(RRV)在蚊子和袋鼠种群中的动态新模型。我们计算了每个物种中子群的稳态种群,并证明了种群中自然发生的振荡(极限环)不会发生。然而,当考虑到媒介种群的季节性强迫和袋鼠出生率时,该模型可以预测多年暴发和混乱,也许可以解释一些RRV疾病流行的不可预测性,特别是在澳大利亚南部。给出了本案例的详细结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Letters in Biomathematics
Letters in Biomathematics Mathematics-Statistics and Probability
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
14 weeks
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