A közép-európai évtizedes hidroklíma-előrejelzések bizonytalanságairól • On the Decadal Hydroclimate Projection Uncertainties in Central-Europe

Abstract

Global climate models’ (GCM) projections of future precipitation for East-Central Europe are subject to considerable uncertainties. In this paper, two independent factors are considered: (i) the so-called model uncertainty due to the different physical structure of the models and (ii) the uncertainty due to the natural variability of the climate system, which has not been thoroughly assessed so far. GCMs that more realistically simulate the decadal hydroclimate variability seen in our region from instrumental measurements covering a long time interval tend to project more moderate precipitation decline (less dry summers, wetter winters). This may