The European Union after the Crisis: Risks and Opportunities—The Problem of “Uncomfortable Knowledge” and “Institutionalised Forgetfulness”

Abstract

The crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic constitutes the most serious challenge for Europe since World War II. The crisis threatens Europe’s security and economy to an unprecedented level. No prediction on when and how the crisis will end is possible. However, irrespective of its end, there is no doubt that for Europe, it will generate costs amounting to several hundreds of billions if not even some trillions of Euros, i.e. seriously harm and weaken the European economy and endanger Europe’s position as a global economic power. It will also result in fundamental changes of international economic and political relations. Searching for, working on and designing rational and effective solutions to successfully master the aftermath of the crisis politically and economically should have a priority for the European Union, coming next only to the incredibly challenging efforts to master the ongoing crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the war in Ukraine caught the EU by surprise and unprepared. Europe should avoid such an experience in the future. Regardless of how this crisis will end, mastering its aftermath and identifying the respective risks and opportunities of the EU will have to start with identifying the main beneficiary(ies) of the crisis and analysing its (their) treatment of the EU and its Member States before and during the crisis. This will not be possible by limiting the actions to the day-to-day business, such as finding new suppliers for raw materials and energy, harmonising fiscal rules, providing the necessary funds to master the financial crisis, etc. A much broader visionary approach will be necessary to find solutions for sustainable peace in Europe. An outcome such as that of the Treaty of Versailles should be avoided. One should prevent the “sleepwalkers” of today, i.e. those ignoring the “uncomfortable knowledge”, letting Europe slide into World War III. The EU should make it clear to all of its Members, for Europe, the “European Solidarity’, with all of its attributes, constitutes the core of the EU’s genuine interests, including those of security and defence. This will require also amendments of the TEU and TFEU discussed in this paper. Otherwise, the EU and its Members will never acquire the status of an equal animal—in the global context—i.e. become truly sovereign and independent.