Assessing the impact of climate change on crop production in southern Africa: a review

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic review of studies assessing the impact of climate change on crop yields in southern Africa. Moreover, it synthesises the current knowledge of the impact of elevated ambient CO2 levels (eCO2) and temperatures on physiological processes, and the application of this knowledge in mechanistic crop models. While eCO2 evidently has a strong impact on photosynthesis and crop water use, it is uncertain how this will work out for the climatic and crop management conditions prevailing in southern Africa. The impact of heat stress on crop reproductive processes and the process of transpiration cooling mitigating heat stress are poorly represented in models, while both process are relevant given the climatic conditions prevailing in southern Africa. Twenty studies assessing the impact of climate change on future yields of crops, mostly maize, have been retrieved. The results suggest that potato, Bambara groundnut and sugarcane yields may improve. No consistent trends for maize and sorghum could be identified. While yield predictions are obviously context-specific, large uncertainties related to climate predictions and crop models imply results should be treated with caution. Suggestions are made for field experimentation and the improved application of crop models for climate change research in the region.