Probabilistic Analysis of the Reliability Performance for Power Transformers in Egypt

Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development Pub Date : 2019-12-30 DOI:10.21622/RESD.2019.05.2.046

A. EL-Bassiouny, M. EL-Shimy, R. Hamouda

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

From reliability, maintainability, and availability (RAM) points of view, the performance of power transformers has a significant impacts on the performance of the entire power network. Their performance has also a significant impacts on the power interruptions at various voltage levels and the consequent customer interruption costs. This paper will discuss the estimated remaining lifetime of power transformers in the voltages subpopulations: 500kV, 220 kV, 132 kV, 66kV and 33 kV of the Egyptian grid as time between failures (TBFs) will be determined and then determine the best fit probability distribution using MATLAB program for repair time, customer interruption costs (CIC) and TBFs, this is performed in order to estimate remaining lifetime of the transformers, from which the best fit probability distribution will be used in this case study which is Weibull distribution. Finally availability of the transformers per different voltage populations is calculated and determined. Different subassemblies (failures) are also undergo the same process of determining TBFs and estimating remaining lifetime. The results will be helpful in the manufacturing process of the transformers and enhancing the maintenance schedule.

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埃及电力变压器可靠性性能的概率分析

从可靠性、可维护性和可用性（RAM）的角度来看，电力变压器的性能对整个电网的性能有着重大影响。它们的性能也对不同电压水平下的电力中断以及由此产生的客户中断成本产生了重大影响。本文将讨论埃及电网500千伏、220千伏、132千伏、66千伏和33千伏电压亚群中电力变压器的估计剩余寿命，因为将确定故障间隔时间（TBF），然后使用MATLAB程序确定修复时间、客户中断成本（CIC）和TBF的最佳拟合概率分布，这样做是为了估计变压器的剩余寿命，在本案例研究中将使用最佳拟合概率分布，即威布尔分布。最后，计算并确定每个不同电压群体的变压器可用性。不同的子组件（故障）也经历相同的确定TBF和估计剩余寿命的过程。研究结果将有助于变压器的制造过程和提高维护进度。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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