{"title":"Abiogenesis: the Carter argument reconsidered","authors":"D. Whitmire","doi":"10.1017/s1473550422000350","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The observation of life on Earth is commonly believed to be uninformative regarding the probability of abiogenesis on other Earth-like planets. This belief is based on the selection effect of our existence. We necessarily had to find ourselves on a planet where abiogenesis occurred, thus nothing can be inferred about the probability of abiogenesis from this observation alone. This argument was first formalized in a Bayesian framework by Brandon Carter. Though we definitely had to find ourselves on a planet where abiogenesis occurred, I argue here that (1) the Carter conclusion is based on what is known as the ‘Old Evidence Problem’ in Bayesian Confirmation Theory and that (2) taking this into account, the observation of life on Earth is not neutral but evidence that abiogenesis on Earth-like planets is relatively easy. I then give an independent timescale argument that quantifies the prior probabilities, leading to the inference that the timescale for abiogenesis is less than the planetary habitability timescale and therefore the occurrence of abiogenesis on Earth-like planets is not rare.","PeriodicalId":13879,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Astrobiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Astrobiology","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1473550422000350","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The observation of life on Earth is commonly believed to be uninformative regarding the probability of abiogenesis on other Earth-like planets. This belief is based on the selection effect of our existence. We necessarily had to find ourselves on a planet where abiogenesis occurred, thus nothing can be inferred about the probability of abiogenesis from this observation alone. This argument was first formalized in a Bayesian framework by Brandon Carter. Though we definitely had to find ourselves on a planet where abiogenesis occurred, I argue here that (1) the Carter conclusion is based on what is known as the ‘Old Evidence Problem’ in Bayesian Confirmation Theory and that (2) taking this into account, the observation of life on Earth is not neutral but evidence that abiogenesis on Earth-like planets is relatively easy. I then give an independent timescale argument that quantifies the prior probabilities, leading to the inference that the timescale for abiogenesis is less than the planetary habitability timescale and therefore the occurrence of abiogenesis on Earth-like planets is not rare.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Astrobiology is the peer-reviewed forum for practitioners in this exciting interdisciplinary field. Coverage includes cosmic prebiotic chemistry, planetary evolution, the search for planetary systems and habitable zones, extremophile biology and experimental simulation of extraterrestrial environments, Mars as an abode of life, life detection in our solar system and beyond, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, the history of the science of astrobiology, as well as societal and educational aspects of astrobiology. Occasionally an issue of the journal is devoted to the keynote plenary research papers from an international meeting. A notable feature of the journal is the global distribution of its authors.