Are Central Banks’ Monetary Policies the Future of Housing Affordability Solutions

Abstract

Housing affordability is one of the major social problems in many countries, with some advocates urging governments to provide more accessible mortgages to facilitate more homeownership. However, in recent decades more and more evidence has shown that unaffordable housing is the consequence of monetary policy. Most of the previous empirical studies have been based on econometric analyses, which make it hard to eliminate potential endogeneity biases. This cross-country study exploited the two global interest rate shocks as quasi-experiments to test the impacts and causality of monetary policy (taking real interest rates as a proxy) on house prices. Global central banks’ synchronized reduction in interest rates after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and then the global synchronized increase in interest rates after the global inflation crisis in 2022 provided both a treatment and a treatment reversal to test the monetary policy hypothesis. The stylized facts vividly reveal the negative association between interest rate changes and house price changes in many countries. This study further conducted a ten-country panel regression analysis to test the hypothesis. The results confirmed that, after controlling for GDP growth and unemployment factors, the change in real interest rate imposed a negative effect on house price growth rates. The key practical implication of this study pinpoints the mal-prescription of harnessing monetary policy to solve housing affordability issues, as it can distort housing market dynamics.