Investigation of trends in extreme events: a case study of Ceyhan Basin, Turkey

IF 1.4 Q4 WATER RESOURCES
M. Yuce, Musa Eşit, Veysel Kalaycioglu
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Investigation of natural hazards is crucial for regional water management and disaster preparedness. In this study, trends in annual maximum, minimum and average temperature; annual maximum dry season deficit (DS deficit), dry season duration (DS duration), wet season excess rain (WS excess) and wet season duration (WS duration) were examined. The analyses of extreme events were identified by applying the SPI drought index for multiple-time scales of 1-, 3-, 6-month, for meteorological stations located in the Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. While the homogeneity of the data was analyzed with the Wallis-Moore method, trend analysis was performed with the Mann-Kendall test. In addition, the determination of the change-point year was performed with the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Buishand’s Range Test. The findings will be useful to water management decision-makers in the Ceyhan River Basin in assessing the impact of droughts and planning drought mitigation strategies to avoid future drought risks.
极端事件趋势调查:以土耳其杰伊汉盆地为例
对自然灾害的调查对于区域水资源管理和灾害防备至关重要。在这项研究中,年最高、最低和平均温度的趋势;研究了年最大旱季亏空(DS亏空)、旱季持续时间(DS持续时间)、雨季过量降雨(WS过量)和雨季持续时间(WS持续时间)。通过应用SPI干旱指数对土耳其杰伊汉盆地气象站的1个月、3个月、6个月的多个时间尺度进行极端事件分析。虽然数据的同质性是用Wallis-Moore方法分析的,但趋势分析是用Mann-Kendall检验进行的。此外,通过标准正态均匀性试验(SNHT)和Buishand范围试验确定了变化点年份。研究结果将有助于杰伊汉河流域的水管理决策者评估干旱的影响,并规划缓解干旱的战略,以避免未来的干旱风险。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
16.70%
发文量
31
期刊介绍: JAWER’s paradigm-changing (online only) articles provide directly applicable solutions to water engineering problems within the whole hydrosphere (rivers, lakes groundwater, estuaries, coastal and marine waters) covering areas such as: integrated water resources management and catchment hydraulics hydraulic machinery and structures hydraulics applied to water supply, treatment and drainage systems (including outfalls) water quality, security and governance in an engineering context environmental monitoring maritime hydraulics ecohydraulics flood risk modelling and management water related hazards desalination and re-use.
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