The dynamics of two-stage contagion

Abstract

We explore simple models aimed at the study of social contagion, in which contagion proceeds through two stages. When coupled with demographic turnover, we show that two-stage contagion leads to nonlinear phenomena which are not present in the basic ‘classical’ models of mathematical epidemiology. These include: bistability, critical transitions, endogenous oscillations, and excitability, suggesting that contagion models with stages could account for some aspects of the complex dynamics encountered in social life. These phenomena, and the bifurcations involved, are studied by a combination of analytical and numerical means.