Hydroclimatic Variability, Characterization, and Long Term Spacio-Temporal Trend Analysis of the Ghba River Subbasin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding hydroclimatic variability and trend for the past four decades in the Upper Tekeze River basin is significant for future sustainable water resource management as it indicates regime shifts in hydrology. Despite its importance for improved and sustainable water allocation for water supply-demand and food security, varying patterns of streamflow and their association with climate change are not well understood in the basin. The main objective of this study was to characterize, quantify, and validate the variability and trends of hydroclimatic variables in the Upper Tekeze River basin at Ghba subbasin using graphical and statistical methods for homogeneous stations for the time period from 1953 to 2017, not uniform at all stations. The rainfall, temperature, and streamflow trends and their relationships were evaluated using the regression method, Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test, Sen’s slope, and correlation analysis. The analysis focused on rainfall, temperature, and streamflow collected from 11 climate and six hydrostations. For simplicity to discuss the interannual and temporal variability the stations were categorized into two clusters according to their record length, category 1 (1983–2017) and category 2 (1953–2017). About 73% and 27% of the rainfall stations exhibited normal to moderate annual rainfall variability. The MK and SR test showed that most of the significant trends in annual rainfall were no change except in one station decreasing and the test also showed no significant change in temperature except in three stations showed an increasing trend. Overall, streamflow trends and change point timings were found to be consistent among the stations and all have shown a decreasing trend. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggest factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the subbasin. These research results offer critical signals on the characteristics, variability and trend of rainfall, temperature, and streamflow necessary to design improved and sustainable water allocation strategies.