The Pragmatic Neighbour: China’s Afghanistan Policy 2001–2021

Abstract

China has remained detached from the events in Afghanistan, generally playing a passive role during the US-led war in its neighbour and refusing to actively support any parties in the conflict. However, Beijing was prompt to embrace Taliban 2.0 as the new power in Kabul as Ashraf Ghani’s regime collapsed in the wake of the US withdrawal in August 2021. At first glance, this appears to be a shift in policy from China’s previous apathetic stance to actively taking the Taliban’s side. Yet, a closer look at China’s actions reveal that it has maintained a consistently narrow and pragmatic policy towards its neighbour since 2002. This article unpacks China’s remarkably consistent Afghanistan policy, identifying its basis in two primary interests: ensuring stability in its Xinjiang province and trade with Central Asia. As long as Beijing is able to secure the willing cooperation from the main parties within Afghanistan to securing these interests, it is indifferent as to who the authority in Kabul is.