The provocative effects of democratization: assessing the relationship between the regime transition in Armenia and the escalation of the Karabakh conflict in 2018–2020

Abstract

ABSTRACT The democratization and war theory suggests that countries become more conflict-prone while in a transition phase to democracy. Drawing on this theory, we examine the relationship between democratic transition in Armenia and the escalation of the Karabakh conflict in 2018–2020 – prior to the second Karabakh war. Obviously, various factors led to a dangerous escalation of the conflict, which eventually ended in all-out war. Yet, the article primarily aims to find out how Armenia’s recent democratization is related to this escalation. Our findings confirm the above theory: the main empirical argument is that the key elements linking democratic transition to conflict escalation have been the increasingly nationalist, populist behaviour of the new Armenian leadership and a perceived provocation caused by it on Azerbaijani side.