Hesitant Realism: China–India Border Tensions and Delhi’s Deepening Strategic Ties with Tokyo and Canberra

Abstract

The deadly conflict on the Ladakh border in June 2020 will force India to re-evaluate its approach to foreign policy. This dangerous turn, despite decades of mutual restraint, border talks, agreements and recent bonhomie between the Indian and Chinese leaders, has intensified the strategically tense environment of the Indo-Pacific region. China’s assertiveness in the South China and East China seas and its technology and trade tensions with a number of neighbouring Asian and Western nations have already raised political temperatures in global politics. In that light, this article considers how the June 2020 border incident may influence India’s strategic rethink, especially in relation to two key nations of the Indo-Pacific, Japan and Australia. The article suggests that forcing a re-evaluation of the strategic challenge posed by China, the June 2020 border confrontation has inspired a more realist edge to India’s security thinking. India is continuing the strategic autonomy with a multi-alignment approach it has favoured, but with a keener sense of realpolitik it is pressing ahead to deepen its defence and strategic alignments with like-minded nations in the Indo-Pacific region. This means that India is not abandoning its relations with traditional partners such as Russia to instead pursue a more formal alliance with one or a group of other powers. Rather, India is further developing strategic partnerships with the United States and its allies, while continuing strong relations with Russia and other long-standing partners to ‘balance’ its national security position. This article identifies India’s approach as ‘hesitant realism’, an explanatory term to explore India’s moves to balance its external relations through growing ties with Japan and Australia—two US allies that are key Indo-Pacific nations.