Statistical Foundation of Historical Facts

Abstract

In the article the reasonability of using statistics in modeling and prognostication of historical events is substantiated. The usage of statistics in investigation of history is caused by the fact that the development of the sociality is determined by the interaction of different historical events, each of them – from one side – is connected with definite events which took place in the past, and from the other side – forms the events of the future. Thus, history as the object of investigation is the whole set of interconnected elements – events, the behaviour of which can be described with the help of appropriate statistical models. In particular, the behaviour of people is determined – first of all – by the biological factors among which the need for food is on the first place. Hypothesis, that the shortage of food is the motive power of historical events, was checked according to the information about the range of events which took place in Ukraine in XVI – XVII centuries. Recurrent 600-year fluctuation of solar activity caused the global negative changes of the climate in Europe and in Ukraine in 1550 – 1650. As a result – regular crop failure and famine, the influence of which for 26,5% of the territory of modern Ukraine (which at that time belonged to Rzecz Pospolita), was increased by the regular forays of Turks and Crimean Tatars. The tendency correlation coefficient of 10 main historical events of those times with the “starvation years”, the origin of which was caused by two mentioned above factors, exceeded 85%, and it is quite enough level for not to decline the hypothesis about the interconnection which is being investigated, taking into account the particularities of information which was used. The stated supposition and the received results allow to make the conclusions that there were and there always are the objective factors, which cause the historical events, the level of which can be determined and to measure the extent of their influence on the historical events.