The quasi-inflation of 2021–2022: a case of bad analysis and worse response

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI:10.4337/roke.2023.02.04

J. Galbraith

引用次数: 3

Abstract

The theoretical construct of pure inflation is of no use in understanding the price events of 2021 and 2022 in the United States. By extension, the conventional tools of the Phillips Curve, NAIRU, potential output and money–supply growth are equally useless. By further extension, the ‘anti-inflation’ policies of the Federal Reserve have acted on asset markets (which are not part of theoretical inflation) while taking credit for the end to a price process in produced goods that was transitory in any event. The Federal Reserve is now stuck in a posture guaranteed to destabilize economic activity sooner or later, while the economy remains vulnerable to additional potential price shocks emanating from the same sources already seen, including real resources, supply chains, wars, pandemics and the policies of the Federal Reserve itself. These can be dealt with, if at all, only by policies in each specific area.

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2021-2022年的准通胀:一个错误分析和更糟糕应对的案例

纯通货膨胀的理论结构对于理解美国2021年和2022年的价格事件毫无用处。由此推而深，菲利普斯曲线、NAIRU、潜在产出和货币供应增长等传统工具同样毫无用处。进一步推而广之，美联储的“反通胀”政策在资产市场(不属于理论通胀的一部分)上发挥了作用，同时也因生产商品价格过程的结束而受到赞誉，而这个过程无论如何都是短暂的。美联储现在的姿态注定迟早会破坏经济活动的稳定，而经济仍然容易受到来自已经看到的相同来源的额外潜在价格冲击的影响，包括实际资源、供应链、战争、流行病和美联储本身的政策。如果有的话，这些问题只能通过每个特定领域的政策来解决。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.