Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance Pub Date : 2018-10-04 DOI:10.1177/2277978718795773

M. Narayana

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This article quantifies the growth effects of age structure transition through current public education expenditure. Using the National Transfer Accounts’ (NTA) First Demographic Dividend (FDD) model, growth effects are accounted by the impact of current public education expenditure on economic support ratio (ESR) and labour productivity through human capital investments. The results offer new macroeconomic evidence. Age structure transition reduces the education dependency ratio (EDR) by all levels of education but the highest in the elementary education. This impacts on a long-term decline in enrolment in elementary education where the current gross enrolment ratio (GER) is close to 100 per cent and a decline in current public education expenditure. Other things being equal, the resultant potential savings, or the availability of extra budgetary resources, is a new way of financing the investment requirements for secondary and higher education with the aim of increasing national economic growth through human capital investments. In particular, growth effects are shown to be positive, higher and longer up to 2050, if the current public education spending is reallocated more for the secondary and higher education. Surprisingly, growth effects are explained less by the ESR than labour productivity. This justifies a higher human capital investment to enhance labour productivity for attainment of higher economic growth. The afore- mentioned macroeconomic framework, results and implications are of general relevance for other developing countries in South Asia and elsewhere in the world. JEL Classification: E65, H52, J11

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通过公共教育支出解释年龄结构转变的增长效应：来自印度的新宏观经济证据

本文通过当前的公共教育支出来量化年龄结构转变的增长效应。使用国家转移账户（NTA）的第一人口红利（FDD）模型，通过人力资本投资，通过当前公共教育支出对经济支持率（ESR）和劳动生产率的影响来解释增长效应。研究结果提供了新的宏观经济证据。年龄结构的转变降低了各级教育的教育依赖率，但在初等教育中是最高的。这影响到目前毛入学率接近100%的基础教育入学率的长期下降，以及目前公共教育支出的下降。在其他条件相同的情况下，由此产生的潜在节约或预算外资源的可用性，是为中等和高等教育的投资需求提供资金的一种新方式，目的是通过人力资本投资促进国家经济增长。特别是，如果目前的公共教育支出更多地重新分配给中等和高等教育，那么到2050年，增长效应将是积极的、更高的和更长的。令人惊讶的是，ESR比劳动生产率更能解释增长效应。这就证明有理由增加人力资本投资，以提高劳动生产率，实现更高的经济增长。上述宏观经济框架、结果和影响对南亚和世界其他地区的其他发展中国家具有普遍意义。JEL分类：E65、H52、J11

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来源期刊

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the Journal is to publish (in English language) peer-reviewed articles, reviews and scholarly comments on issues relating to contemporary global macroeconomics and public finance by which is understood: The Journal is for all professionals concerned with contemporary Macroeconomics and Public Finance and is a forum for all views on related subjects. The Editorial Board welcomes articles of current interest on research and application on the areas mentioned above. The Journal will be international in the sense that it seeks research papers from authors with an international reputation and articles that are of interest to an international audience. In pursuit of the above, the journal shall: a. draw on and include high quality work from the international community of scholars including those in the major countries of Asia, Europe, Asia Pacific, the United States, other parts of the Americas and elsewhere with due representation for considerations of the readership. The Journal shall include work representing the major areas of interest in contemporary research on Macroeconomics and Public Finance and on a wide range of issues covering macro- economics, tax and fiscal issues, banking and finance, international trade, labour economics, computational and mathematical methods, etc. The Journal would particularly engage papers on pure and applied economic theory and econometric methods. b. avoid bias in favour of the interests of particular schools or directions of research or particular political or narrow disciplinary objectives to the exclusion of others. c. ensure that articles are written in a terminology and style which makes them intelligible, not merely within the context of a particular discipline or abstract mode, but across the domain of relevant disciplines.