JOINT DISTRIBUTION AND COINCIDENCE PROBABILITY OF THE NUMBER OF DRY DAYS AND THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN SUMATRA FIRE-PRONE AREA

IF 0.7 Q4 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geographia Technica Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI:10.21163/gt_2022.172.10

S. Nurdiati, M. Najib, Achmad Syarief Thalib

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can affect the increase in rainfall intensity and the number of dry days, also known as dry spells that can cause drought and increase the potential for forest fires. This study examines the effect of ENSO and IOD conditions on the joint distribution of the number of dry days and total precipitation in a fire-prone area in southern Sumatra, Indonesia. The joint distribution is constructed using rotated copulas from several families, including Gaussian, student’s t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, Joe, Galambos, BB1, BB6, BB7, and BB8. Fire-prone areas are defined using k-mean clustering, while the copula parameters are estimated using the inference of function for margins (IFM) method. Based on the peak of joint probability density functions (PDFs), ENSO and IOD conditions had a significant effect in the dry season but had no significant effect in the rainy season. The peak of joint PDFs is getting to the dry-dry conditions when the ENSO and IOD indexes increase in the dry season. However, based on coincidence probability, ENSO conditions still influence the joint distribution between the number of dry days and total precipitation during the rainy season but not with IOD conditions. The lower the ENSO index, the higher the probability of wet conditions co-occurring in the number of dry days and total precipitation. Meanwhile, ENSO and IOD conditions significantly affect the coincidence probability between the number of dry days and total precipitation. Moderate-Strong El Niño has the most considerable coincidence probability of 68.5%, followed by Positive IOD with 62.6%. The two conditions had similar effects on the joint distribution of the number of dry days and total precipitation. Moreover, the association between the number of dry days and the total precipitation was stronger in the dry season than in the rainy

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苏门答腊岛南部火灾易发区干旱日数与降水总量的联合分布及其重合概率

：厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）和印度洋偶极子（IOD）会影响降雨强度的增加和干旱天数，也称为干旱期，会导致干旱并增加森林火灾的可能性。本研究考察了ENSO和IOD条件对印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛南部火灾多发地区干旱天数和总降水量联合分布的影响。联合分布是使用来自几个家族的旋转copula构建的，包括Gaussian、student's t、Clayton、Gumbel、Frank、Joe、Galambos、BB1、BB6、BB7和BB8。火灾易发区域使用k-均值聚类来定义，而copula参数使用边缘函数推断（IFM）方法来估计。根据联合概率密度函数（PDF）的峰值，ENSO和IOD条件在旱季有显著影响，但在雨季没有显著影响。当ENSO和IOD指数在旱季增加时，联合PDFs的峰值达到了干燥条件。然而，基于重合概率，ENSO条件仍然影响雨季干旱天数和总降水量的联合分布，而不影响IOD条件。ENSO指数越低，干旱天数和总降水量中同时出现潮湿条件的概率就越高。同时，ENSO和IOD条件显著影响干旱天数与总降水量的符合概率。中等强度厄尔尼诺的符合概率最高，为68.5%，其次是正IOD，为62.6%。这两种情况对干旱天数和总降水量的联合分布影响相似。此外，旱季的干旱天数与总降水量之间的相关性比雨季更强

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来源期刊

Geographia Technica GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Geographia Technica is a journal devoted to the publication of all papers on all aspects of the use of technical and quantitative methods in geographical research. It aims at presenting its readers with the latest developments in G.I.S technology, mathematical methods applicable to any field of geography, territorial micro-scalar and laboratory experiments, and the latest developments induced by the measurement techniques to the geographical research. Geographia Technica is dedicated to all those who understand that nowadays every field of geography can only be described by specific numerical values, variables both oftime and space which require the sort of numerical analysis only possible with the aid of technical and quantitative methods offered by powerful computers and dedicated software. Our understanding of Geographia Technica expands the concept of technical methods applied to geography to its broadest sense and for that, papers of different interests such as: G.l.S, Spatial Analysis, Remote Sensing, Cartography or Geostatistics as well as papers which, by promoting the above mentioned directions bring a technical approach in the fields of hydrology, climatology, geomorphology, human geography territorial planning are more than welcomed provided they are of sufficient wide interest and relevance.