When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13163

Raphael Flepp, Oliver Merz, Egon Franck

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study whether outcome bias persists in markets with actors who are financially incentivized to make optimal decisions. We test whether inherently noisy match outcomes from European football are correctly incorporated into prices from a betting exchange market. We find that market prices overestimate (underestimate) the winning probability of teams that previously overperformed (underperformed) in terms of match outcomes compared to their performance based on “expected goals.” This pattern is mirrored in negative (positive) betting returns on overperforming (underperforming) teams. These results suggest that even competitive market mechanisms fail to completely erase outcome bias.

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当排名表出现时:结果偏差会导致信息效率低下的市场吗?

我们研究的是，在有经济激励做出最优决策的参与者的市场中，结果偏差是否会持续存在。我们测试了欧洲足球比赛的固有噪声结果是否被正确纳入博彩交易所市场的价格中。我们发现，与基于 "预期进球数 "的表现相比，市场价格高估（低估）了之前在比赛结果方面表现过高（过低）的球队的获胜概率。这种模式反映在对表现出色（表现不佳）球队的投注回报为负（正）。这些结果表明，即使是竞争性市场机制也无法完全消除结果偏差。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.