CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELING IN THE BUILT UP AREAS WITHIN URBAN DEVELOPMENT AT PONTIANAK, WEST BORNEO, INDONESIA

Abstract

This research integrated the GIS-Cellular Automata model with the regression model to predict urban development in Pontianak within the built up area change phenomena approach. The research aimed to understand built-up land use development in Pontianak during 1990-2015 and to predict its regional development in 2033. The employed method were satellite the image interpretation approach, hybrid interpretation, and built up land development prediction using transition rules like driving factors and inhibiting factors of urban development. The driving ones are accessibility related to distances to CBD, to main roads, and to the existing built regional areas while the inhibiting ones are peatland and the protected areas. The result showed that the hybrid interpretation, between visual and digital interpretations from the landsat images, can be used to map the built up lands with 94.8% of sampling point’s precision. The non-built up areas in Pontianak during 1990-2015 were 83.52 Ha/year, and the modelling result predicts that non-built regional areas in Pontianak during 2015-2033 will be 80.51 Ha/year heading toward northern and central areas of Pontianak.