Risk, standard deviation, and expected value: when should an individual start social security?

IF 1 4区经济学 Q4 BUSINESS

Engineering Economist Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI:10.1080/0013791X.2018.1532543

T. Eschenbach, N. Lewis

引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract In choosing when to start collecting Social Security, the differences in expected net present values (NPVs) are small—but the corresponding standard deviations are not. Starting earlier is less risky. The case analyzed is single individuals in the U.S. system, but the methodology can be applied to couples and to the systems of other nations. Considering risk and return together places Social Security in the same risk/return framework as other capital investments. Behavioral, situational, and qualitative factors that often dominate decisions on when to start are linked with quantitative approaches to longevity risk and mortality risk.

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风险、标准差和期望值：个人应该何时开始社会保障？

摘要在选择何时开始领取社会保障金时，预期净现值（NPV）的差异很小，但相应的标准差却没有。早点出发风险较小。所分析的案例是美国系统中的单身人士，但该方法也适用于夫妇和其他国家的系统。将风险和回报放在一起考虑，将社会保障置于与其他资本投资相同的风险/回报框架中。行为、情境和定性因素往往主导着何时开始的决策，这些因素与寿命风险和死亡率风险的定量方法有关。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Engineering Economist ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL-OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Engineering Economist is a refereed journal published jointly by the Engineering Economy Division of the American Society of Engineering Education (ASEE) and the Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (IISE). The journal publishes articles, case studies, surveys, and book and software reviews that represent original research, current practice, and teaching involving problems of capital investment. The journal seeks submissions in a number of areas, including, but not limited to: capital investment analysis, financial risk management, cost estimation and accounting, cost of capital, design economics, economic decision analysis, engineering economy education, research and development, and the analysis of public policy when it is relevant to the economic investment decisions made by engineers and technology managers.