Shelby County v. Holder and Changes in Voting Behavior

Abstract

In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), the U.S. Supreme Court declared unconstitutional Section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which required jurisdictions with histories of voter disenfranchisement to receive federal preclearance before altering voting laws. Since Shelby, 1688 polling sites across 13 states have closed. Utilizing a sample of eligible voters from the Current Population Survey, I first predict the likelihood of voting. Then, I analyze how Shelby has influenced the likelihood of ballot box access issues among non-voters. Overall voter turnout is 0.9pp lower in post-Shelby elections. Black eligible voters are 5.4pp less likely to vote after Shelby. However, Shelby is not associated with a higher likelihood of ballot box access issues. While the mechanisms through which Shelby affects voting behavior remain inconclusive, Shelby is significantly associated with widespread voter disenfranchisement. These findings are relevant for policymakers in creating a revised preclearance formula to curb voter disenfranchisement.