Multi-generational technology management in a segmented environment

Abstract

This paper examines the diffusion pattern of multi-generational technology innovation using segment-based analysis. The objective of the study is to comprehend the variation in the adoption behaviour of individuals across different geographical regions. The market of potential customers is geographically segmented into homogenous groups to epitomise the realistic technology diffusion in different markets. Three different S-shaped distribution functions, namely, Weibull, Logistic, and Gompertz are employed to understand the diffusion curves of multigenerational technology. The study critically examines two different scenarios depending on the condition that the substitution among two generations is possible within or across the market segments. The applicability of the proposed models is demonstrated using quantitative validation on the historical sales data set of IBM mainframe computers and Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) monitors. Additionally, the estimation ability and the forecasting performance of the present research are further compared with the well-established multi-generational diffusion model.