Combination of Backpropagation Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization for Water Production Prediction in Municipal Waterworks

Abstract

Abstract.Purpose: As the population grows, the need for clean water also increases. Municipal Waterworks (PDAM) is an institution that regulates and manages the procurement of clean water for the community. So, the amount of water produced and distributed should be adjusted to the demand for water. Predictions on PDAM water production need to be done as planning and better preparation and facilitating and assisting in decision-making.Methods: The study used the Neural Network backpropagation algorithm combined with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to predict the amount of water PDAM should produce. Backpropagation has a good ability to make predictions. But backpropagation has a weakness that causes it to get stuck at a local minimum. This is influenced by the determination of weights that are not optimal. In this study, PSO had a role in optimizing error values on the network to gain optimal weight. Result: This study obtained MSE values in the training and testing process of 0.00179 and 0.00081 from the combination model of backpropagation ANN and PSO. It is smaller than the ANN model without using an optimization algorithm.Novelty: The combination of JST backpropagation and PSO can improve predictions' accuracy and produce optimum weights.