The effects of Indonesia’s technical barriers to trade on manufacturing exports: an empirical analysis using the pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood method

IF 1 Q2 LAW

Journal of International Trade Law and Policy Pub Date : 2022-03-11 DOI:10.1108/jitlp-08-2021-0045

Christina Ruth Elisabeth, Kiki Verico

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Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of Indonesia’s technical barriers to trade (TBT) on manufacturing exports. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the UNCTAD database to calculate the coverage ratio and frequency index of TBTs, which represent the restrictiveness of TBTs on imports. The effects of TBTs are estimated using the gravity model (Tinbergen, 1962) and the pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood methodology (Santos Silva and Tenreyro, 2006, 2011). Findings An estimation on the manufacturing sector shows that TBT reduces Indonesia’s manufacturing exports. However, the effect of TBT is different in disaggregated manufacturing sector. TBT is found to reduce exports of chemicals and transportation but increase exports of metal and textiles. This finding supports the empirical evidence that TBT can create trade-impeding and demand-enhancing effects on trade flows. The negative effect of TBT on chemical and transportation exports implies that the cost of compliance is higher than the increasing demand rate. This finding suggests the need for policy evaluation and improvements for restrictive TBT. As Indonesia is still highly dependent on imported inputs, restrictive TBT can potentially reduce the productivity of the Indonesian manufacturing sector. Originality/value This study aims to investigate the effects of TBT in Indonesia, as a manufacturing-based economy that relies heavily on imported intermediate inputs. Furthermore, this study contributes to the literature by using country-specific techniques and aggregated and disaggregated manufacturing sectors as subjects for study. Meanwhile, previous studies use multi-country and multi-product approaches and focus on the aggregate sector. This study estimates the effects of TBT on the disaggregated sector, given its high share of imported inputs and reliance on export-oriented industries. TBT is constructed in a more detailed product level (HS-4 digit level) to provide more accurate results.

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印度尼西亚技术性贸易壁垒对制造业出口的影响：伪泊松最大似然法的实证分析

本研究旨在探讨印尼技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)对制造业出口的影响。设计/方法/方法本研究使用贸发会议数据库计算技术性贸易壁垒的覆盖率和频率指数，这代表了技术性贸易壁垒对进口的限制程度。使用重力模型(Tinbergen, 1962)和伪泊松最大似然方法(Santos Silva和Tenreyro, 2006, 2011)估计tbt的影响。对制造业的一项估计表明，技术性贸易壁垒减少了印尼的制造业出口。然而，技术性贸易壁垒在分类制造业中的作用是不同的。技术性贸易壁垒减少了化学品和运输的出口，但增加了金属和纺织品的出口。这一发现支持了经验证据，即技术性贸易壁垒可以对贸易流动产生贸易阻碍和需求促进的影响。技术性贸易壁垒对化学品和运输出口的负面影响意味着遵守成本高于需求增长率。这一发现表明有必要对限制性技术性贸易壁垒进行政策评估和改进。由于印度尼西亚仍然高度依赖进口投入，限制性技术性贸易壁垒可能会降低印度尼西亚制造业的生产率。原创性/价值本研究旨在调查技术性贸易壁垒对印度尼西亚的影响，印度尼西亚是一个以制造业为基础的经济体，严重依赖进口中间投入。此外，本研究通过使用具体国家技术和汇总和分类的制造业部门作为研究对象，为文献做出了贡献。与此同时，以往的研究多采用多国、多产品的研究方法，并侧重于总部门。这项研究估计了技术性贸易壁垒对分类部门的影响，因为它在进口投入中所占的份额很高，并依赖于面向出口的工业。TBT在更详细的产品级别(HS-4位数级别)构建，以提供更准确的结果。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Trade Law and Policy LAW-

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Trade Law and Policy is a peer reviewed interdisciplinary journal with a focus upon the nexus of international economic policy and international economic law. It is receptive, but not limited, to the methods of economics, law, and the social sciences. As scholars tend to read individual articles of particular interest to them, rather than an entire issue, authors are not required to write with full accessibility to readers from all disciplines within the purview of the Journal. However, interdisciplinary communication should be fostered where possible. Thus economists can utilize quantitative methods (including econometrics and statistics), while legal scholars and political scientists can invoke specialized techniques and theories. Appendices are encouraged for more technical material. Submissions should contribute to understanding international economic policy and the institutional/legal architecture in which it is implemented. Submissions can be conceptual (theoretical) and/or empirical and/or doctrinal in content. Topics of interest to the Journal are expected to evolve over time but include: -All aspects of international trade law and policy -All aspects of international investment law and policy -All aspects of international development law and policy -All aspects of international financial law and policy -Relationship between economic policy and law and other societal concerns, including the human rights, environment, health, development, and national security