Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia

Abstract

This article analyses the geopolitical repercussions of America’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021. Since the Afghan Taliban continue to disregard the principal terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement brokered by the United States, Afghanistan is descending into chaos. The Afghan Taliban is unable to provide ordinary Afghans with basic living necessities, lacks international recognition and must contend against other violent extremist organizations operating within the country. Thus far, the Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) have exhibited varying responses to the Afghan Taliban’s takeover. While the ‘Stans’ are all anxious about the potential spread of radical Islam and a looming humanitarian crisis, the greater threat to Ashgabat, Tashkent and Dushanbe, as well as Bishkek and Nur-Sultan, lies with the United States pivoting away from Central Asia and the Russian Federation acquiring greater leverage over regional security issues.