Monitoring of forest management. Prediction of area change

Abstract

The current problems of monitoring of the state and changes in areas of green plantings are considered. The assessment of dynamics of the distribution of forest park plantations would allow making decisions on taking appropriate measures for forest restoration or sanitary logging to maintain the areas of the “lungs of the city” at the appropriate level. The analysis of global trends in the use of GIS and remote sensing to study the situation with green plantings shows that this allows obtaining up-to-date and reliable information promptly. Namely, it enables quick monitoring of ecological aspects on large areas and significantly speeds up taking necessary measures, if necessary. The available approaches to observe the tasks of monitoring of green areas are analysed. The existing problems of assessing the state of the forest park economy in complex environments such as cities are proposed to be solved by using software products such as ERDAS IMAGINE and ArcGIS for processing and further analysis of satellite imagery of the area. To solve the task of predicting the change in the forest park economy area over time, modelling linear regression is proposed using the built-in programming language in the ArcGIS. The developed application with an intuitive interface will provide an opportunity to conveniently work with databases and attribute information, graphics and images. The development includes five options for performing calculations, which allows analysing the results in each of the anticipated scenarios. All calculations were performed on the example of the Kharkiv Forest Park “Sokolniki-Pomirki”. An algorithm for processing and analysing satellite images was developed. The proposed algorithm can be applied to increase the speed of monitoring of the state of forests and predicting changes not only in Kharkiv, but also in other cities in Ukraine and worldwide. The paper demonstrates the capabilities of GIS for monitoring of green areas, which allow performing similar work with minimal time costs. Thus, the GIS product is promising at the current stage of observing changes in the areas of green plantings.