Prospects of low carbon development for Pakistan’s energy and power sector in the post Covid scenario

IF 2.4 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS
U. Zia, H. Aslam, Muhammad Zulfiqar, Sibghat Ullah
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Abstract

In the backdrop of COVID19 recovery, Pakistan is still struggling to cope with the economic challenges and disruptions caused in the energy supply chain. On one hand where COVID has brought serious socio-economic costs and prolonged delays, it has also provided opportunity for developing countries such as Pakistan to “build-forward-better” their economies in a more sustainable and climate friendly manner. This study particularly highlights the impact of COVID on energy supply and demand sectors of Pakistan, its near- and long-term impacts, and what policy interventions can be adopted to put Pakistan on-track to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The economic focus in on “Green Recovery” and what key interventions will foster a rapid transition towards decarbonization in Pakistan. Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model is used to provide energy sector outlook (2020-2040) of Pakistan under different scenario i.e., Pre COVID growth, Business-as-Usual, Slow Recovery, and Green Recovery from COVID. The results obtained from the model depicts that following a green recovery scenario, Pakistan can reduce around 10 Mtoe (9%) of its total energy use, 53 TWh of electricity, 19 Mt of emissions from demand sectors, and 11 Mt of emissions from the power sector by 2030. For total levelized cost of the power sector, the green recovery scenario represents a generation cost of $13 billion by 2030 which further highlights that energy efficiency could lead to cost savings of approximately $3 billion each year by 2030. Green recovery is however still a daunting task as it would require economic stimulus of $8 billion only to recover to its pre COVID scenario and total investments of $120 billion by 2030.
后疫情情景下巴基斯坦能源和电力部门的低碳发展前景
在新冠疫情19复苏的背景下,巴基斯坦仍在努力应对经济挑战和能源供应链中断。一方面,新冠肺炎带来了严重的社会经济成本和长期延误,也为巴基斯坦等发展中国家提供了机会,以更可持续和气候友好的方式“更好地发展”其经济。这项研究特别强调了新冠肺炎对巴基斯坦能源供需部门的影响,其近期和长期影响,以及可以采取哪些政策干预措施,使巴基斯坦走上实现国家自主贡献的轨道。经济重点是“绿色复苏”,以及哪些关键干预措施将促进巴基斯坦向脱碳的快速过渡。低排放分析平台(LEAP)模型用于提供巴基斯坦在不同情景下的能源部门前景(2020-2040年),即新冠疫情前的增长、照常营业、缓慢复苏和从新冠疫情中绿色复苏。该模型得出的结果表明,在绿色复苏情景下,到2030年,巴基斯坦可以减少约1000万吨当量(9%)的能源使用、53太瓦时的电力、1900万吨需求部门的排放和1100万吨电力部门的排放。对于电力行业的总水平化成本,绿色复苏情景表示,到2030年,发电成本将达到130亿美元,这进一步突显了能源效率到2030年每年可节省约30亿美元的成本。然而,绿色复苏仍然是一项艰巨的任务,因为它需要80亿美元的经济刺激,才能恢复到新冠疫情前的情景,到2030年总投资将达到1200亿美元。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
16.00%
发文量
83
审稿时长
8 weeks
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