A Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Modeling Approach to Prioritize Soil Conservation Management in River Basin Critical Areas Coupled With Future Climate Scenario Analysis

IF 3.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
A. Pandey, K. C. Bishal, P. Kalura, V. Chowdary, C. Jha, A. Cerdà
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引用次数: 21

Abstract

About 44% of the Indian landmass experiences the adverse impact of land degradation. This loss of sediments caused by soil erosion reduces the water quality of local water bodies and decreases agricultural land productivity. Therefore, decision-makers must formulate policies and management practices for sustainable management of basins that are cost-effective and environment friendly. Application of the best management practices (BMPs) to properly manage river basins is difficult and time-consuming. Its implication under various climate change scenarios makes it more complicated but necessary to achieve sustainable development. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was employed to prioritize the Tons river basin’s critical areas in the central Indian states coupled with future climate scenario analysis (2030–2050) using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for simulation of streamflow and sediment yield for daily and monthly scales using the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) technique. The values of coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and root mean square error (RMSE)-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) were .71, .70, −8.3, and .54, respectively during the calibration period, whereas for validation the values were .72, .71, −3.9, and .56, respectively. SWAT model underestimated the discharge during calibration and overestimated the discharge during validation. Model simulations for sediment load exhibited a similar trend as streamflow simulation, where higher values are reported during August and September. The average annual sediment yield of the basin for the baseline period was 6.85 Mg ha−1, which might increase to 8.66 Mg ha−1 and 8.79 Mg ha−1 in the future years 2031–2050 and 2081–2099, respectively. The BMPs such as recharge structure, contour farming, filter strip 3 and 6 m, porous gully plugs, zero tillage, and conservation tillage operations have been considered to evaluate the soil and water conservation measures. Recharge structure appeared to be the most effective measure with a maximum reduction of sediment by 38.98% during the baseline period, and a 37.15% reduction in the future scenario. Sub-watersheds, namely SW-8, SW-10, SW-12, SW-13, SW-14, SW-17, SW-19, SW-21, SW-22, and SW-23, fall under the high category and are thus considered a critical prone area for the implementation and evaluation of BMPs. Compared to the baseline period, the effectiveness of BMPs is slightly decreasing in the 2040s, increasing in the 2070s and decreasing in the 2090s. Recharge structure and filter strip 6 m have been found to nullify the high soil erosion class completely. Overall, SWAT model simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenarios were observed to be reliable and can be adopted to identify critical areas for river basins having similar climatic and geographical conditions.
一种水土评估工具(SWAT)建模方法,结合未来气候情景分析,优先考虑流域关键地区的水土保持管理
印度约44%的土地受到土地退化的不利影响。土壤侵蚀造成的沉积物损失降低了当地水体的水质,降低了农业土地生产力。因此,决策者必须制定具有成本效益和环境友好的流域可持续管理政策和管理实践。应用最佳管理做法来妥善管理河流流域既困难又耗时。它在各种气候变化情景下的影响使实现可持续发展变得更加复杂但必要。在这项研究中,土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)模型被用于优先考虑印度中部各州的Tons河流域的关键区域,并结合使用代表性浓度路径(RCP)4.5和RCP 8.5情景的未来气候情景分析(2030–2050)。SWAT模型使用序列不确定度拟合(SUFI-2)技术进行了校准和验证,用于模拟日尺度和月尺度的流量和产沙量。在校准期间,决定系数(R2)、Nash-Sutcliffe效率(NSE)、百分偏差(PBIAS)和均方根误差(RMSE)-观测标准差比(RSR)的值分别为.71、.70、−8.3和.54,而对于验证,值分别为0.72、.71、−3.9和.56。SWAT模型在校准期间低估了排放量,在验证期间高估了排放量。泥沙负荷的模型模拟显示出与流量模拟相似的趋势,其中8月和9月的数值较高。基准期流域的年平均产沙量为6.85 Mg ha−1,在未来2031-2050年和2081-2099年可能分别增加到8.66 Mg ha–1和8.79 Mg ha-1。在评价水土保持措施时,考虑了补给结构、等高线耕作、3米和6米过滤带、多孔沟塞、免耕和保护性耕作作业等基本要素。补给结构似乎是最有效的措施,在基线期间最大限度地减少了38.98%的沉积物,在未来情况下减少了37.15%。次级流域,即SW-8、SW-10、SW-12、SW-13、SW-14、SW-17、SW-19、SW-21、SW-22和SW-23,属于高类别,因此被认为是实施和评估BMP的关键易发区域。与基线期相比,BMP的有效性在2040年代略有下降,在2070年代增加,在2090年代下降。补给结构和6m的过滤带已被发现完全消除了高土壤侵蚀等级。总体而言,RCP 8.5情景下的SWAT模型模拟是可靠的,可用于确定气候和地理条件相似的流域的关键区域。
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来源期刊
Air Soil and Water Research
Air Soil and Water Research ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
7.80
自引率
5.30%
发文量
27
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: Air, Soil & Water Research is an open access, peer reviewed international journal covering all areas of research into soil, air and water. The journal looks at each aspect individually, as well as how they interact, with each other and different components of the environment. This includes properties (including physical, chemical, biochemical and biological), analysis, microbiology, chemicals and pollution, consequences for plants and crops, soil hydrology, changes and consequences of change, social issues, and more. The journal welcomes readerships from all fields, but hopes to be particularly profitable to analytical and water chemists and geologists as well as chemical, environmental, petrochemical, water treatment, geophysics and geological engineers. The journal has a multi-disciplinary approach and includes research, results, theory, models, analysis, applications and reviews. Work in lab or field is applicable. Of particular interest are manuscripts relating to environmental concerns. Other possible topics include, but are not limited to: Properties and analysis covering all areas of research into soil, air and water individually as well as how they interact with each other and different components of the environment Soil hydrology and microbiology Changes and consequences of environmental change, chemicals and pollution.
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