Contrasting ocean-atmosphere dynamics mediate flood hazard across the Mississippi River basin

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
S. Muñoz, Brynnydd Hamilton, B. Parazin
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Mississippi River basin drains nearly half of the contiguous United States, and its rivers serve as economic corridors that facilitate trade and transportation. Flooding remains a perennial hazard on the major tributaries of the Mississippi River basin, and reducing the economic and humanitarian consequences of these events depends on improving their seasonal predictability. Here, we use climate reanalysis and river gage data to document the evolution of floods on the Missouri and Ohio Rivers — the two largest tributaries of the Mississippi River — and how they are influenced by major modes of climate variability centered in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. We show that the largest floods on these tributaries are preceded by the advection and convergence of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico following distinct atmospheric mechanisms, where Missouri River floods are associated with heavy spring and summer precipitation events delivered by the Great Plains Low-Level Jet, while Ohio River floods are associated with frontal precipitation events in winter when the North Atlantic subtropical high is anomalously strong. Further, we demonstrate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation can serve as a precursor for floods on these rivers by mediating antecedent soil moisture, with Missouri River floods often preceded by a warm eastern tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Ohio River floods often preceded by a cool eastern tropical Pacific (La Niña) in the months leading up peak discharge. Finally, we use recent floods in 2019 and 2021 to demonstrate how linking flood hazard to sea surface temperature anomalies holds potential to improve seasonal predictability of hydrologic extremes on these rivers.
对比海洋-大气动力学介导密西西比河流域的洪水灾害
密西西比河流域排放了美国近一半的土地,其河流是促进贸易和运输的经济走廊。洪水仍然是密西西比河流域主要支流的常年危险,减少这些事件的经济和人道主义后果取决于提高其季节可预测性。在这里,我们使用气候再分析和河流测量数据来记录密西西比河的两条最大支流密苏里河和俄亥俄河洪水的演变,以及它们如何受到以太平洋和大西洋为中心的主要气候变化模式的影响。我们发现,在这些支流上发生最大洪水之前,墨西哥湾的湿气遵循不同的大气机制平流和汇聚,密苏里河洪水与大平原低层急流带来的春季和夏季强降水事件有关,而俄亥俄河洪水与冬季北大西洋副热带高压异常强烈时的锋面降水事件有关。此外,我们证明,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动可以通过调节先前的土壤湿度,成为这些河流洪水的前兆,密苏里河洪水之前通常是温暖的东部热带太平洋(厄尔尼诺),俄亥俄河洪水之前往往是凉爽的东部热带太平洋(拉尼娜)。最后,我们利用2019年和2021年的最近洪水来证明,将洪水灾害与海面温度异常联系起来,有可能提高这些河流极端水文的季节可预测性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
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