Statistical analysis of extreme value of meteorological elements observed for the last 31 years (1989–2019) at Narora site

Abstract

Understanding of extreme weather conditions at the site of interest is essentially required in the design of engineering structures so that the structures can withstand weather stresses. This paper presents an analysis of extreme values of meteorological elements observed at Narora site for the last three decades (1989–2019). The elements considered are extreme air temperature (°C), minimum relative humidity (%), extreme wind gust (km/h), maximum rainfall (mm) in a day and a month, and annual rainfall. The extreme value analysis reveals that the maximum air temperature, maximum wind gust at 30 m, maximum monthly rainfall, and maximum annual rainfall obey Fisher-Tippett Type-1/Gumbel extreme value distribution, whereas minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity (%), annual daily maximum rainfall (mm), and annual minimum rainfall (mm) obey Fisher-Tippett Type-2/Frechet extreme value distribution function. Distribution function parameters, i.e., location, scale, and shape parameter for each variable, have been determined. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 1000 years are worked out using best fit linear regression curve as a compliance of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board Safety Guide Recommendations. The derived extreme values are particularly useful to designer for arriving at suitable design basis values of different elements to ensure the safety of the reactors and other civil structures in Narora region, with respect to stresses due to weather conditions. Extreme values corresponding to return periods of 50 and 100 years at Narora are compared with corresponding values at other three nuclear reactor sites in India, namely, Tarapur, Kalpakkam, and Trombay. In addition, the time series pattern analysis of rainfall for 31 years at the Narora site closely following the 2-year moving average rainfall data pattern. These results can be used for water harvesting, irrigation, and floods management plans in the future.