Potential Distribution of the Asiatic Black Bear in Khangchendzonga National Park, Sikkim Eastern Himalaya using MaxEnt Modeling

Abstract

Habitat assessment and mapping are major functional keys in the need species conservation concern. The study aimed to understand the possible distribution of Asiatic Black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in the Khangchendzonga National Park. Sign survey, camera trapping, and trail monitoring were used to collect the presence-only data. In this analysis, we used Maximum Entropy Modeling and ArcGIS to determine the variable's contribution to the species distribution and presence. In total, 63 presence data were obtained, and out of 23 environmental variables we used only 15 different environmental variables due to multicollinearity. The ROC results show that variable consistency was excellent (mean AUC=0.941). The variables like Bio-14(Precipitation of driest month), Bio-2(Mean diurnal range (mean of monthly max temp - min temp)), Bio-13(Precipitation of wettest month), aspect and LULC were the critical factors for the distribution of U.thibetanus. The major distribution of U.thibetanus was found in the broadleaved, coniferous forest and grassland patches in the core area. The temperate zone is most preferred as compared to the sub-alpine and alpine zone by U.thibetanus. The distributional area accounts for 360.32km2, representing 20.19% of the whole core area of Khangchendzonga National Park. Large areas of distribution were predicted outside of the core areas, i.e. buffer and transition areas of Khangchendzonga National Park. This study offers valuable findings and data which can be used in future research and conservation management plans in and around Khangchendzonga National Park to mitigate human-bear interaction.